Daily Desk – December 5, 2025

Europe prints green on strong macro revisions while markets wait for US PCE + Michigan sentiment to set intraday direction. High volatility expected into 16:00 CET.

1. Macro Context & Sentiment

Asia stable — Japan Leading Index surges to 1.8% (prev -1.6%), reducing recession fears.
Eurozone GDP revised up to 0.3% QoQ (prev 0.2%) & 1.4% YoY confirming resilience.
France industrial print +0.2% (est -0.1%) and deficit narrows to -3.92B → more positive tone for EU assets.
UK Housing stabilises — Halifax +0.7% YoY confirming bottoming signs.
MAIN EVENT TODAY → 16:00 US PCE + Consumer Sentiment. Markets likely range until release.

Sources: Reuters, Eurostat, TradingEconomics, Investing.com

2. Long-Term Trend – US Indices

Index	LT Bias	Structure	Risks
S&P 500 (ES)	Bullish	Higher lows maintained — accumulated demand on dips.	Hawkish PCE could break structure short-term.
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)	Bullish but fragile	Tech extended — momentum linked to inflation print.	Profit-taking risk if PCE surprises hot.
Dow Jones (YM)	Neutral → Bullish	Value/industrials supportive — clean chart structure.	Global slowdown or rotation back to tech.

3. US Open Focus – Intraday Playbook

Logic: Compression until 16:00 → first impulse might be fake → wait confirmation candle.

Index	Bias	Support	Liquidity Zone	Scenario
ES	Neutral	VWAP + previous low cluster	Stops above PDH	Breakout only valid if reclaim/hold post-PCE. Fade wick if rejection on high.
NQ	Neutral leaning bullish	Demand under yesterday’s low	Liquidity above PDH	Scalp longs if acceptance above PDH. Otherwise fade into range.
YM	Slight Bullish	Value zone support	Range-mid liquidity pocket	Long favoured if ES+NQ aligned. Best structure for clean R/R.

4. Economic Calendar – December 05, 2025

🟢 pro-risk — ⚪ neutral — 🔴 risk-off

Time	Country	Indicator	Actual — Forecast — Previous
06:00	Japan	Leading Indicator	1.8 — -1.6
08:00	Germany	Industrial Orders MoM	1.5% — 0.3% — 1.1%
08:00	UK	Halifax House Prices YoY	0.70% — -1.90%
08:00	UK	Halifax House Prices MoM	0.0% — -0.6%
08:45	France	Industrial Production MoM	0.2% — -0.1% — 0.8%
08:45	France	Trade Balance SA	-3.92B — — -6.58B
08:45	France	Current Account	1.1B — — -1.6B
10:00	Italy	Retail Sales MoM	0.50% — — 0.50%
10:00	Italy	Retail Sales YoY	1.30% — 1% — 0.50%
11:00	Eurozone	GDP YoY Revised	1.4% — 1.4% — 1.4%
11:00	Eurozone	GDP QoQ Revised	0.3% — 0.2% — 0.2%
11:00	Eurozone	Employment QoQ Final	0.2% — -0.1%
14:30	Canada	Unemployment Rate	7% — 6.9%
14:30	Canada	Participation Rate	65.3% — 65.3%
14:30	Canada	Avg Hourly Earnings YoY	3.98% — 4.00%
16:00	USA	PCE Price Index YoY	2.8% — 2.7%
16:00	USA	PCE MoM	0.3% — 0.3%
16:00	USA	Core PCE YoY	2.8% — 2.9%
16:00	USA	Consumer Spending MoM	-0.3% — 0.6%
16:00	USA	Michigan Sentiment Prelim	52 — 51.0
16:10	Eurozone	ECB Lane Speech	--
21:00	USA	Consumer Credit	Pending

5. Gold Focus – GC

Bias: Neutral → Bullish if PCE cool.
Levels: Resistance 4260–4300 / Support 4180–4210.
Drivers: PCE, USD, yields, risk sentiment.

6. Elies’ Note

No rushing, today is a patience test.
Market is likely dead until 16:00 → first move after PCE could trap.
Wait for confirmation.

Sources:
Reuters Markets
TradingEconomics Calendar
Investing.com Calendar
Eurostat GDP & EU Data
BOJ Data
Statistics Canada Labour Data
BLS US Inflation Data
University of Michigan Consumer Survey