Daily Desk – December 4, 2025

Markets open the session in a cautious tone as global bond volatility remains elevated. Asia stabilised overnight following strong long-dated JGB demand, while Europe awaits Retail Sales figures and the US prepares for Jobless Claims later today.

1. Macro Context & Sentiment

Asia traded mixed but stabilised as strong demand for long-term JGBs supported sentiment and cooled recent bond stress. (Reuters)
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI remained below 50 signalling contraction, but Services PMI continues to hold above expansion threshold, suggesting a two-speed economy. (Reuters)
Risk appetite remains fragile: crypto and high-beta names have underperformed, while gold remains firm as real yields stay unstable. (Reuters)
Market focus for today: Eurozone Retail Sales + US Weekly Jobless Claims – potential volatility trigger for fixed-income and equities. (ABC Bourse Economic Calendar)

Sources: Reuters, Eurostat, S&P Global PMI, Investing.com Calendar, Saxo Market Brief.

2. Long-Term Trend – US Indices

Index	LT Bias	Structure	Risks
S&P 500 (ES)	Bullish (stabilising)	Long-term structure remains intact despite recent rate-driven volatility; buyers present near weekly lows.	Long-end yield spikes, hawkish repricing, weaker macro data.
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)	Neutral to bullish (fragile)	Tech remains dominant, but rotation into value creates turbulence; momentum dependent on yields.	High sensitivity to rates; profit-taking risk in large tech caps.
Dow Jones (YM)	Neutral	Value-driven and less volatile; upside slower but more resilient during yield stress.	Global manufacturing slowdown; weakness in financials/industrials.

3. US Open Focus – Intraday Playbook

Logic: December seasonality + macro uncertainty = probability of range-trading before economic prints. Key levels are yesterday's extremes and VWAP — confirmation needed before breakout plays.

Index	Bias	Support	Liquidity Zone	Scenario
ES	neutral	Weekly VWAP + recent swing low cluster	Stop pool above recent highs	Sideways before data. Breakout if Jobless Claims print dovish; downside if yields jump on strong labour data.
NQ	bearish edge	Weak support in tech-heavy zone from yesterday	Liquidity above recent tech highs	Fade rallies unless rates fall. Post-data reaction likely directional.
YM	neutral	Value-sector support base	Mid-range liquidity band	Likely range day; cleaner than NQ for structured trades.

4. Economic Calendar – December 4, 2025

🟢 pro-risk — ⚪ neutral — 🔴 risk-off

Time (CET)	Country	Indicator	Details (Actual — Forecast — Previous)	Bias
11:00	Eurozone	Retail Sales (Oct)	Pending — (awaiting release)
14:30	United States	Weekly Jobless Claims	Pending — key risk event

5. Gold Focus – GC

Bias: Bullish continuation structure — risk hedge remains supported by rate volatility.
Key zones:
- Resistance: 4,260–4,300
- Support: 4,200–4,230 (first buy zone)
- Deep pullback: 4,150–4,180
Catalysts: US labour data, bond market stress, central bank flows.

6. Elies’ Note

Beginning of month + macro uncertainty = market doesn’t have a clear trend.
Today your job is :
observe → wait → trade only when structure is clean.
No trades before Jobless Claims.

Sources:
– Reuters – Global Market Wrap
– Reuters – Eurozone PMI contraction
– ABC Bourse – Eco Calendar 04/12/2025
– TradingEconomics – US Calendar