Daily Desk – December 3, 2025

Markets open the mid-week session with mixed signals: Asia FX and bonds react to BOJ and RBA divergence, the rupee hits fresh lows, PMIs in Europe stabilise in slight expansion, while gold grinds near record highs and bitcoin extends its rebound as traders position ahead of US ADP and ISM Services.

1. Macro Context & Sentiment

Asian equities trade mixed: Japan and Korea are supported by aggressive Fed cut pricing, but local bond markets stay under pressure as JGB yields push toward multi-year highs and RBA rate expectations grind higher.
The dollar pauses after a strong run; the Indian rupee breaks below 90 per USD on sustained outflows and a widening trade deficit, underlining stress in some EM FX, while Asia FX research pieces highlight growing divergence between central banks.
Services PMIs across France, Germany, the eurozone and the UK hover just above 50, signalling a fragile but stabilising services cycle; Swiss CPI prints broadly in line with subdued inflation, confirming the low-flation regime there.
Gold holds near $4,220–4,250/oz after Monday’s six-week high, supported by aggressive Fed cut bets and ongoing central-bank buying; bitcoin bounces back above the mid-$90k area after a brutal November, improving high-beta risk sentiment at the margin.

Sources: Reuters, ActionForex, TradingCharts, Saxo/Asia FX research, TradingEconomics, Yahoo Finance, Coindesk.

2. Long-Term Trend – US Indices

Index	LT Bias	Structure	Risks
S&P 500 (ES)	Bullish (late-cycle feel)	Price remains elevated after a strong year, supported by global demand for US equities; recent action looks like a broad distribution/rotation rather than a clean topping pattern.	Any upside surprise in US services, labour or inflation that forces the market to push back Fed cut timing; crowded exposure to US assets if EM underperformance accelerates.
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)	Bullish but tactically fragile	Still above key weekly supports, but rotations inside tech and the crypto beta effect create bigger swings; recent rallies have been powerful but vulnerable to profit-taking.	Sharper backup in yields or dollar; negative surprises from large AI/semis; crypto risk-off spilling into high-beta tech again.
Dow Jones (YM)	Neutral to slightly bullish	More balanced factor exposure (value, industrials, financials) keeps volatility lower than NQ; series of higher lows still intact but momentum is slower.	Global manufacturing softness, trade tensions and higher long-end yields could weigh on industrials and financials simultaneously.

3. US Open Focus – Intraday Playbook

Logic: Mid-week session with important US data ahead (ADP + ISM Services). Overnight flows are driven by PMIs and EM FX stress, but the real catalyst is US data later in the day. Priority: respect prior day’s range and weekly VWAP, avoid over-committing before the ADP/ISM window.

Index	Bias	Support	Liquidity Zone	Scenario
ES	neutral	Yesterday’s mid + weekly VWAP as intraday equilibrium; deeper support near yesterday’s low.	Liquidity sitting above yesterday’s high and around last week’s minor swing high.	Pre-data: expect range trade around VWAP with fake breaks. Post-data: a strong ADP/ISM beat that pushes yields up risks a squeeze lower into the bottom of the weekly range; a soft print could trigger a clean break above yesterday’s high toward trend-up conditions.
NQ	neutral / event-driven	Short-term demand where yesterday’s tech dip was bought, just above prior day low.	Cluster of stops above yesterday’s high and a second pocket near last week’s local high.	Tech is the purest expression of the rates narrative today: if yields pop on stronger data, NQ should underperform ES/YM and offer short setups on failed breakouts; if yields fall on weaker data, NQ can lead the upside and squeeze shorts through the upper liquidity pocket.
YM	mildly bullish	Support band built over the last 3 sessions where value/industrials have been accumulated.	Upper edge of the recent balance; thin air above if it breaks cleanly.	As long as the demand band holds, pullbacks are buyable with tight invalidation; if ADP/ISM are not disastrous, YM can grind higher even if NQ chops, offering a cleaner structure for trend-up intraday trades.

4. Economic Calendar

🟢 pro-risk — ⚪ neutral — 🔴 risk-off | Selected releases – December 3, 2025 (CET)

Time	Country	Indicator	Details (Actual — Forecast — Previous)
00:30	Australia	GDP Q/Q (Q3)	0.4% — 0.7% — 0.6% (rev. 0.7%)
07:30	Switzerland	CPI Y/Y (Nov)	0.1% — 0.1% — 0.1%
08:50–09:30	Eurozone / UK	Services PMI Final (Nov)	France 50.8; Germany 52.7; Eurozone 53.1; UK 50.5 — broadly in line with forecasts
10:00	Eurozone	PPI m/m & y/y (Oct)	Data due later — market looks for slight m/m uptick but still negative y/y
14:15	United States	ADP Employment (Nov)	n/a — ~consensus around trend growth — previous solid
16:00	United States	ISM Services (Nov)	n/a — markets watching for any slip below 50 — previous in modest expansion

5. Gold Focus – GC

Bias: Bullish, with momentum still constructive as Fed cut expectations firm up and macro uncertainty stays elevated.
Key zones:
- Resistance: $4,260–4,300 (recent six-week high area / breakout extension).
- Support 1: $4,210–4,230 (intraday value area; holding here = healthy consolidation).
- Support 2: $4,150–4,180 (prior breakout and short-term trendline confluence).
Catalysts & risks:
- Fed cut odds for December and early-2026 remain the main driver; softer US data keeps the downside limited.
- Central banks have stepped up purchases, and silver hitting record highs adds momentum to the precious-metals complex.
- Risk: a hawkish surprise from US data or Fed speakers could trigger a sharp $100+ flush as leveraged late longs de-risk, but structurally the dip would still likely be bought.

6. Elies’ Note

Today presents multiple minor signals (PMIs, EM FX behavior, gold and crypto moves), but the main market driver is the US data release this afternoon (ADP/ISM). Trading before these releases implies operating on low-quality information.

Intraday plan:
– Morning: observe ranges, identify liquidity zones, maintain controlled sizing.
– Afternoon: execute only if post-data conditions form a clear environment (directional trend or clean mean-reversion).
– No trade is taken if the setup criteria are not met.

The objective is to build consistent trade data over time rather than isolated high-risk actions.

Sources used for this Daily Desk:
– ActionForex – Eco Data 12/3/25
– TradingCharts – Forex Economic Calendar for December 3, 2025
– Reuters – Dollar takes a breather ahead of Fed, bitcoin perks up
– Reuters – Rupee cracks below 90 to the dollar
– Saxo – Market Quick Take (context into mid-week)
– Reuters – Gold rebounds on Fed cut expectations; silver hits record high
– TradingEconomics – Gold price & historical data
– Regional market coverage – Asia equity and bond moves