Daily Desk – December 2, 2025

Risk sentiment improves after Monday’s wobble: US indices close higher with tech and crypto-linked names bouncing, while eurozone flash inflation surprises slightly on the upside and UK housing data confirm a still-resilient property market.

1. Macro Context & Sentiment

US equities recovered on Tuesday: the Nasdaq, Dow and S&P 500 all closed modestly higher (roughly +0.6%, +0.4%, +0.3%) as investors bought the dip in big tech and crypto-exposed stocks after a weak start to December.
Eurozone flash HICP for November printed around 2.2% YoY, marginally above expectations and slightly above the ECB’s 2% target, while the unemployment rate for October remained at 6.4%, signalling an economy that’s soft but not collapsing.
UK Nationwide data showed November house prices rising 0.3% m/m with annual growth slowing to about 1.8%, confirming a “slow but not broken” housing cycle supported by wages and the prospect of lower rates in 2026.
Gold consolidates just below recent highs, trading in the low $4,200s after Monday’s six-week high, while silver holds near record territory; crypto extends Monday’s rebound but remains under water versus November peaks.

Sources: Investopedia, Eurostat, Nationwide, Financial Times, Reuters, Yahoo Finance.

2. Long-Term Trend – US Indices

Index	LT Bias	Structure	Risks
S&P 500 (ES)	Bullish (momentum cooling)	Still in a broad uptrend YTD with higher weekly lows and strong global demand for US stocks; last week’s pullback looks like digestion after a strong run rather than trend reversal.	Re-pricing of Fed cuts if data or Fed speakers turn more hawkish; global growth scare from Europe/China; positioning crowded in quality growth and US large caps.
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)	Bullish but volatile	Tech remains the structural leader but in a noisy distribution zone after an AI/crypto-driven cycle; repeated sharp swings around flows into/out of “Magnificent 7” type names.	Multiple compression in high-duration tech if yields back up; regulatory headlines; correlation spikes with crypto on stress days.
Dow Jones (YM)	Neutral to slightly bullish	Benefiting from rotation into industrials and value; structure is cleaner with shallower pullbacks, but less explosive upside than NQ.	Macro slowdown in global manufacturing; earnings downgrades in cyclicals; spillover from stronger dollar and higher funding costs.

3. US Open Focus – Intraday Playbook

Logic: After Monday’s risk-off blip and Tuesday’s bounce, US indices trade near recent highs with macro focus on eurozone data and US auto demand. Intraday edge comes from how price behaves around Monday’s extremes and weekly VWAP rather than from fresh catalysts.

Index	Bias	Support	Liquidity Zone	Scenario
ES	neutral / mildly bullish	Monday’s low + weekly VWAP band as first demand cluster.	Stops and resting liquidity above Monday’s high and around last week’s swing high.	Base case: early probe above Monday’s high; if order flow is thin and quickly rejected, mean reversion back into VWAP/previous close. Clean acceptance above with breadth support opens a controlled trend-up day.
NQ	bullish (tactically)	Yesterday’s mid/low where dip buyers stepped in on tech and crypto-tied names.	Liquidity pocket above yesterday’s high and recent local resistance.	Look for continuation of the tech rebound: shallow pullbacks into yesterday’s demand zone are buy candidates as long as ES/YM confirm; invalidation if we slice back below Monday’s low and stay offered.
YM	neutral	Short-term demand built over the last 2–3 sessions in industrials/financials.	Top of the recent balance area, where late longs are concentrated.	If ES/NQ drive higher, YM should follow but with lower beta; if we see divergence (YM lagging sharply), that’s a warning signal that the rally is narrow and vulnerable.

4. Economic Calendar

🟢 pro-risk — ⚪ neutral — 🔴 risk-off | Key releases – December 2, 2025 (approx. CET)

Time	Country	Indicator	Details (Actual — Forecast — Previous)
11:00	Eurozone	Unemployment Rate (Oct)	6.4% — 6.3% — 6.4%
11:00	Eurozone	Flash HICP Inflation (Nov, YoY)	2.2% — ~2.1% — 2.1%
08:00	United Kingdom	Nationwide House Price Index (Nov)	0.3% m/m; 1.8% y/y — exp. ~0.1% — 0.9% y/y (Oct)
Evening	United States	Domestic Vehicle Sales (Nov)	n/a — focus on trend after prior quarter’s rebound — prior month solid

5. Gold Focus – GC

Bias: Still bullish, but in a short-term consolidation after a push toward six-week highs.
Key zones:
- Resistance: $4,260–4,300 (recent local highs / extension zone).
- First support: $4,200–4,220 (today’s opening region and short-term value area).
- Deeper support: $4,140–4,160 (prior breakout / pullback buy zone).
Catalysts & risks:
- Eurozone inflation slightly above target and sticky global price pressures maintain the “hedge” bid.
- Any renewed back-up in US yields or stronger dollar on data could trigger a $50–$100 shakeout without killing the bigger trend.
- Central bank buying and persistent geopolitical noise keep dips attractive for medium-term allocators.

6. Elies’ Note

Yesterday’s dip was bought, but without strong momentum.
The bullish structure remains, but the market is in a slow grind rather than an impulsive phase. For intraday trading: respect the Monday/Tuesday extremes and distinguish a standard retest from a true reversal.
Trade only when order flow is clean; avoid choppy conditions.

Sources used for this Daily Desk:
– Investopedia – Markets News, Dec. 2, 2025: Major Indexes Close Higher
– Eurostat – Euro area annual inflation up to 2.2% (flash estimate, Nov 2025)
– Eurostat – Euro area unemployment at 6.4% (Oct 2025)
– Nationwide – November 2025 House Price Index
– Financial Times – Eurozone inflation unexpectedly rises to 2.2% in November
– Yahoo Finance – Gold price today, Tuesday, December 2, 2025
– TradingEconomics – Gold price & historical data
– Scotiabank – Calendar of Economic Release Dates (December 2025)