Daily Desk – December 1, 2025

Risk sentiment turns cautious to start December: Asian PMIs slide back into contraction, BOJ hike bets lift the yen, crypto gets hit, while gold holds near record highs and markets focus on today’s ISM Manufacturing and Powell’s speech.

1. Macro Context & Sentiment

Asian equities traded mixed to weaker as a fresh wave of soft manufacturing PMIs (China Caixin back below 50, broader Asia factory contraction) and renewed BOJ hike expectations pressured risk assets, while India remained relatively resilient.
The yen firmed toward the mid-155s versus the dollar after BOJ Governor Ueda signalled that a rate hike is on the table, pushing Japanese yields to multi-year highs and reinforcing the idea that 2025 could end with another move from the BOJ.
Global futures opened normally after Friday’s CME outage, with European and US equity futures slightly softer in early trade; the week is dominated by US ISM, ADP, payrolls and Eurozone inflation data as markets refine December Fed cut expectations.
Gold trades close to recent record levels (spot above $4,200/oz equivalent), supported by lower real-yield expectations and safe-haven demand; cryptocurrencies slide more than 5% overnight as higher funding costs and yen strength pressure leveraged positions.

Sources: Reuters, Saxo, Coindesk, Investing.com, S&P Global, various economic calendars.

2. Long-Term Trend – US Indices

Index	LT Bias	Structure	Risks
S&P 500 (ES)	Bullish (corrective)	ES remains in a medium-term uptrend after November’s washout and rebound: price is holding above key weekly demand and trading in the upper half of the 2025 range, with recent pullbacks bought on Fed cut expectations.	Stronger-than-expected US data or a hawkish tone from Powell that pushes back on near-term cuts; renewed spike in real yields; or an unwind of crowded positioning in cyclicals and quality growth.
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)	Bullish but fragile	NQ has underperformed slightly as rotation out of the most crowded AI/mega-cap names continues; structurally still bullish, but trading in a wide distribution range with clear liquidity pockets above recent highs and below last month’s lows.	Further derating in tech on regulation or guidance, crypto and high-beta risk selling feeding into sentiment, and any disappointment around this week’s US data that hits growth expectations.
Dow Jones (YM)	Neutral to bullish	Value and industrial rotation keeps YM relatively well-supported; structure is more “orderly” than NQ with a series of higher lows, but momentum has cooled slightly as global manufacturing data weakens.	Global manufacturing slowdown (Asia PMIs), weaker commodities or earnings downgrades in industrials/financials that break the sequence of higher lows.

3. US Open Focus – Intraday Playbook

Logic: After Friday’s CME outage and a weekend reset, futures reopened normally but into a softer risk tone driven by weak Asia PMIs and BOJ signals. Intraday focus is on how ES/NQ/YM react around Friday’s post-outage levels and weekly VWAP bands ahead of the ISM print and Powell.

Index	Bias	Support	Liquidity Zone	Scenario
ES	neutral	Friday’s post-outage low and the weekly VWAP area as first demand band.	Cluster of stops and resting liquidity above Friday’s high and around last week’s local swing high.	Base case: early test/sweep of Friday’s high in thinner pre-ISM conditions; failure and rejection back below favors a rotation into mid-range and VWAP. Clean acceptance above, with supportive breadth, can open a controlled trend-up day if ISM is not a negative surprise.
NQ	bearish	Friday’s demand zone post-CME reopening and prior intraday liquidity pocket from late NY session.	Liquidity sitting just above Friday’s high, where breakout buyers and short-term shorts are both exposed.	Given tech and crypto weakness, a spike above Friday’s high that quickly stalls is a candidate for mean-reversion shorts back into the body of last week’s range; only if ES/YM confirm strength and NQ holds above reclaimed levels does a momentum extension make sense.
YM	neutral / slightly bullish	Short-term demand band built over the last 2–3 sessions where value/industrials were accumulated.	Upper edge of the recent 3-day balance and any “air pocket” left above Friday’s late push.	As long as this demand band holds, dips can be bought with tight invalidation; a decisive break below Friday’s low that is not reclaimed would signal broader risk-off and invalidate the mild bullish bias.

4. Economic Calendar

🟢 pro-risk — ⚪ neutral — 🔴 risk-off | Times approx. CET (Paris)

Time	Country	Indicator	Details (Actual — Forecast — Previous)
02:45	China	Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov)	49.9 — 50.5 — 50.6
02:45	China	Manufacturing PMI (private, Nov)	49.9 — 50.4 — 50.6
08:30	Switzerland	Retail Sales m/m (Oct)	0.7% — 0.1% — 0.1%
16:00	United States	ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov)	n/a — 49.0 — 48.7
Evening	United States	Powell speech (policy & QT)	No data; tone on policy path and QT end watched closely

5. Gold Focus – GC

Bias: Neutral to bullish. Gold continues to trade near record territory as markets price a high probability of Fed cuts in 2026 and fret over slower global manufacturing.
Key zones: Resistance: 4,250–4,280 (recent spike highs); Major support: 4,180–4,200 (last breakout zone); Weekly equilibrium around 4,210.
Catalysts:
- Today’s ISM and Powell’s tone on growth/QT will steer real yields and the dollar.
- Weak Asia PMIs plus BOJ normalization narrative support the “macro hedge” bid in gold.
- Risk: a surprisingly strong ISM and/or more hawkish Powell could trigger a fast flush from stretched levels before buyers step back in.

6. Elies’ Note

No Daily Desk on Friday, the CME outage killed the tape and made the session statistically non-représentative, so we don't trade on thoses conditions.

Today we are back for a new week :
Monday = OPEN of the month + PMIs + ISM + Powell.
Today we have to pay attention to levels and structure.

Have a great week,
Elies

Sources that informed today’s desk:
– Reuters – Asian stocks slip; yen firms as Ueda comments boost rate hike hopes
– Reuters – Asia’s factories stumble as trade deals fail to revive demand
– Investing.com – China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
– Bitease – Economic Calendar (Dec 1, 2025 events)
– iFOREX – Economic Calendar (ISM Manufacturing Index)
– Saxo – Asia Market Quick Take – December 1, 2025
– Jin10 – Global Financial Morning Briefing (CME outage recap)
– Reuters – CME trading halted due to cooling issue at data centres
– Al Jazeera – Global futures reopen after CME outage
– Coindesk – Asia Morning Briefing: BOJ hike bets trigger Asia selloff and Bitcoin slide
– Financial Express – Gold rate today on 1st December 2025
– Moneycontrol – Gold up nearly 1%, silver continues to soar
– Morningstar – Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: ISM & ADP in focus
– S&P Global – Week Ahead Economic Preview (week of 1 Dec 2025)