Daily Desk – November 27, 2025

Markets extend the global risk rally into Thanksgiving, with rate-cut bets for December dominating the narrative while US cash equities close for the holiday and futures trade in thinner conditions.

1. Macro Context & Sentiment

Global equities continue higher after Wall Street’s fourth straight gain yesterday (S&P 500 +0.69%, Nasdaq +0.82%, Dow +0.67%), with most of the November drawdown now retraced.
US Treasury yields ease and the dollar softens as markets price >80% odds of a December Fed rate cut; US data releases are paused today for Thanksgiving, putting Eurozone sentiment and ECB minutes in focus.
Flows remain constructive into month-end, with improved breadth and rotation out of crowded AI mega-caps into cyclicals, value and financials, while global indices move close to erasing November losses.
Gold and silver push higher again, oil bounces after recent weakness, and Bitcoin trades around the 90,000 area – a configuration consistent with lower real yields and a broad risk-on regime.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, MarketWatch.

2. Long-Term Trend – US Indices

Index	LT Bias	Structure	Risks
S&P 500 (ES)	Bullish (corrective)	Medium-term uptrend intact after a sharp November pullback; daily structure shows higher lows and this week’s rally pushing back toward recent swing highs.	Hawkish repricing of Fed expectations, renewed spike in real yields, or a sharp swing in risk sentiment could trigger a deeper correction from elevated levels.
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)	Bullish but vulnerable	Range-bound within a wide distribution as investors rotate partially out of crowded AI/mega-cap names; still above key medium-term supports.	Valuation compression and negative tech headlines could amplify downside versus ES/YM and widen any correction.
Dow Jones (YM)	Bullish	Benefits from rotation into value, industrials and financials; trend structure is cleaner with shallow pullbacks and strong responses at demand zones.	Global growth slowdown, weaker commodities or stress in financials could erode leadership and drag YM back into a choppy range.

3. US Open Focus – Intraday Playbook

Logic: US cash markets are closed for Thanksgiving; futures trade in thinner, shortened sessions. Focus is on reactions around yesterday’s extremes and weekly VWAP bands rather than the regular cash open.

Index	Bias	Support	Liquidity Zone	Scenario
ES	neutral	Weekly VWAP area and Wednesday’s pullback low (NY session demand).	Zone around yesterday’s high and any overnight double-top/sweep above it.	Sweep above yesterday’s high in thin conditions that quickly rejects favours shorts back into VWAP; sustained acceptance above opens the door to a slow “grind up” continuation.
NQ	neutral	Early-week balance lows (Monday–Tuesday demand shelf).	Untested highs above Wednesday’s range and nearby stop clusters.	Failed breakout above prior highs favours mean reversion; if ES/YM confirm strength and NQ holds above balance, momentum continuation is possible despite thin tape.
YM	bullish	Recent demand zone defined by the last 2–3 sessions’ higher lows.	Upper edge of the 3-day balance and yesterday’s late-session “air pocket”.	Buy controlled pullbacks with clear invalidation; short bias only if YM breaks and fails to reclaim yesterday’s low, signalling a pause in value leadership.

4. Economic Calendar

🟢 pro-risk — ⚪ neutral — 🔴 risk-off | Times approx. CET (Paris)

Time	Country	Indicator	Details (Actual — Forecast — Previous)
01:00	New Zealand	ANZ Business Confidence (Nov)	67.1 — n/a — 58.1
01:30	Australia	Private Capital Expenditure QoQ (Q3)	6.4% — 0.6% — 0.2% (rev. 0.4%)
08:00	Germany	GfK Consumer Confidence (Dec)	-23.2 — -23.4 — -24.1
10:00	Eurozone	M3 Money Supply YoY (Oct)	n/a — 2.8% — 2.8%
11:00	Eurozone	Economic Sentiment (Nov)	n/a — 97.0 — 96.8
11:00	Eurozone	Industrial Confidence (Nov)	n/a — -8.0 — -8.2
11:00	Eurozone	Services Sentiment (Nov)	n/a — 4.4 — 4.0
11:00	Eurozone	Consumer Confidence Final (Nov)	n/a — -14.2 — -14.2
13:30	Eurozone	ECB Meeting Accounts	n/a — n/a — n/a
14:30	Canada	Current Account (Q3)	n/a — -14.4B — -21.2B
All day	United States	Thanksgiving Holiday	Cash markets closed; no major US data scheduled

5. Gold Focus – GC

Neutral to slightly bullish bias as gold benefits from softer US yields, a weaker dollar and strong demand for “rate-cut” trades alongside the broader risk rally.
Technical focus on the recent breakout area as first support on pullbacks, the prior swing low as short-term invalidation, and the cluster of recent highs as resistance and profit-taking zone.
Catalysts: confirmation (or disappointment) of December Fed cut pricing, ECB minutes and Eurozone sentiment, plus any surprise repricing of inflation expectations via energy markets.

6. Elies’ Note

Pure rate-cut narrative + US holiday = optional trading day.
Futures will move, but liquidity is patchy and traps are common.
Only take premium setups at clear extremes (yesterday’s high/low, weekly VWAP bands); if structure is messy, capital preservation is the best trade.

Sources:
Reuters – Wall St ends higher on growing bets for December Fed rate cut
Bloomberg – Global equities rebound on Fed rate-cut bets
Yahoo Finance – US stocks extend rally on rate cut hopes; Asia markets advance
MarketWatch – U.S. Economic Calendar (Thanksgiving: no major data)
ActionForex – Eco Data 11/27/25
MarketIndex – Morning Wrap: ASX set to climb after Wall Street surges
Share Talk – What happened overnight – Thursday 27th November 2025