Daily Desk – November 26, 2025

Risk sentiment stabilizes mid-week as markets digest mixed US data, softer Treasury yields, and a calmer dollar. Focus shifts to US GDP (2nd estimate), jobless claims, and oil volatility after a sharp pullback.

1. Macro Context & Sentiment

US and European equities trade slightly higher overnight following Tuesday’s mild risk-off session; Asian markets closed mixed with Japan rebounding while China remains pressured by weak property data.
Treasury yields continue to ease modestly, helping the USD consolidate after last week’s strength; markets maintain around 55% odds of a December Fed cut despite mixed inflation signals.
Equity flows show lighter volume heading into US holiday season; VIX remains near 21–22, suggesting cautious but controlled sentiment. Tech remains volatile, while energy and industrials rotate upward.
Gold consolidates above key support; oil sees increasing volatility after OPEC+ uncertainty; crypto stabilizes after a sharp two-day correction.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, MarketWatch.

2. Long-Term Trend – US Indices

Index	LT Bias	Structure	Risks
S&P 500 (ES)	Bullish (corrective)	Pullback within higher-timeframe trend; buyers defending weekly demand zones.	Repricing of Fed expectations; renewed vol spike; weaker US data.
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)	Neutral to bullish	Range-bound after an AI-driven correction; liquidity pockets overhead.	Valuation compression; earnings misses; rotation out of growth.
Dow Jones (YM)	Bullish	Value rotation continues; index holds strong above weekly mid-range.	Manufacturing slowdown; financial sector weakness; oil shock risk.

3. US Open Focus – Intraday Playbook

Logic: Overnight trade remains contained within Tuesday’s range; intraday direction likely depends on reaction to US GDP (2nd estimate) and jobless claims. Liquidity sits above prior-day highs and near weekly VWAP zones.

Index	Bias	Support	Liquidity Zone	Scenario
ES	neutral	Weekly VWAP cluster; Tuesday low	Liquidity above PDH	Sweep of PDH → rejection → return to mid-range; acceptance above opens a controlled trend-up.
NQ	neutral	Tech dip-buyer zone from Monday	Liquidity above Tuesday’s high	Failed breakout above PDH favors mean-reversion; clean break → momentum extension with ES confirmation.
YM	bullish	Demand zone from last week’s rotation	Liquidity above 3-day range	Bullish continuation if pullback holds; short only below Tuesday low on vol-confirmed breakdown.

4. Economic Calendar

🟢 pro-risk — ⚪ neutral — 🔴 risk-off

Time	Country	Indicator	Details (Actual — Forecast — Previous)
10:00	Germany	GfK Consumer Climate (Dec)	-8.5 — -8.2 — -8.8
10:30	United States	GDP (2nd Estimate, Q3)	2.7% — 2.8% — 2.8%
10:30	United States	Core PCE Prices (Q3)	2.3% — 2.3% — 2.3%
10:30	United States	Initial Jobless Claims	225K — 219K — 218K
16:30	United States	Crude Oil Inventories	n/a — -1.2M — -3.1M

5. Gold Focus – GC

Neutral to slightly bullish bias as gold holds above last week’s support cluster.
Key zones: resistance 4060–4080; major support 3985–4005; weekly equilibrium zone at 4025.
Catalysts: calmer USD, revised GDP/PCE figures, oil volatility affecting inflation expectations.

6. Elies’ Note

Stay patient across ranges.
Market is rotating calmly but still sensitive to US macro data.
Focus on quality setups around liquidity and reaction zones.

Sources: Reuters · Bloomberg · Yahoo Finance · MarketWatch