Daily Desk – November 25, 2025

Broad risk assets extend Monday’s Fed-cut-driven rebound, with Asia and Europe trading cautiously higher while markets brace for a heavy US data batch (PPI, retail sales, housing) that can recalibrate December rate-cut odds.

1. Macro Context & Sentiment

Asian equities trade mostly higher, supported by renewed expectations of a December Fed cut after Wall Street’s strong Monday session; Japan and broader Asian indices are green, while India is choppy around key highs.
US and European rates markets price a softer growth path with rising odds of a December Fed cut; the US curve remains inverted while 10Y yields ease and the dollar consolidates, as EUR/USD trades sideways near 1.15 after flat German GDP.
Equities have bounced sharply: Monday saw the S&P 500 up ~1.6% and Nasdaq ~2.6%, led by big tech, while the VIX has slipped back toward the low-20s after last week’s spike above 26, signalling calmer but still nervous positioning into key US data.
Gold remains in a consolidation phase after briefly trading above $4,100 earlier this month; oil is steady as supply risks balance demand worries, and crypto markets are stabilizing after last week’s broad risk-off washout that hit Bitcoin and high-beta assets.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, MarketWatch.

2. Long-Term Trend – US Indices

Index	LT Bias	Structure	Risks
S&P 500 (ES)	Bullish (corrective phase)	Holds a series of higher weekly lows after a sharp AI-led correction; current action looks like a pullback within a broader uptrend, with the recent dip bought aggressively on Fed-cut expectations.	Hawkish repricing if US inflation re-accelerates, deeper earnings downgrades for 2026, or a renewed spike in VIX back above mid-20s.
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)	Bullish but fragile	Trades in a distribution range after an AI-driven boom-and-bust; breadth is narrow and leadership concentrated, making the index sensitive to macro surprises and single-name tech headlines.	Valuation compression on higher real yields, rotation out of mega-cap tech, and any disappointment on AI capex or regulation.
Dow Jones (YM)	Neutral / slightly bullish	Benefits from rotation into value, industrials and financials; structure is cleaner than NQ with shallower pullbacks, but remains tied to global growth momentum.	Growth slowdown in the US and abroad, industrial earnings misses, and renewed stress in financials if credit spreads widen again.

3. US Open Focus – Intraday Playbook

Logic: US index futures trade slightly above Monday’s close after a strong two-day rebound; intraday direction is likely to be driven by reactions around prior-day extremes and liquidity pockets once US PPI/retail sales hit, with traders watching for either continuation of the squeeze or a fade back into last week’s range.

Index	Bias	Support	Liquidity Zone	Scenario
ES	neutral	Prior day low / overnight low area as first demand band; deeper support near last week’s volume node where the rebound started.	Cluster of liquidity above Monday’s high and around the weekly VWAP / prior swing high.	Base case: early probe above Monday high; if that break fails (wick + absorption), look for a rotation back toward the middle of yesterday’s range. Clean acceptance above Monday high opens path to a trend-up day into remaining shorts; loss of prior day low brings back risk-off flows and favors mean-reversion shorts.
NQ	neutral	Support around the prior liquidation zone from last week’s tech selloff and Monday’s intraday pullback low.	Liquidity resting above prior day high where breakout buyers and late shorts are trapped.	Watch for a stop-run above prior day high: failed breakout with divergence vs ES/YM favors short back into range; if ES/YM confirm strength and NQ holds above the breakout zone, momentum longs can ride an extension with tight risk below reclaimed levels.
YM	bullish	Tight support band from Thursday–Monday lows, where dip buyers stepped in during the recent correction.	Liquidity sitting just above Monday’s high and around weekly mid-range.	Rotation/value bid still supports YM; look for pullbacks into support to build longs targeting a grind higher as long as ES does not break down. Shift to shorts only if the support cluster fails impulsively and correlation with ES/NQ flips risk-off.

4. Economic Calendar

🟢 pro-risk — ⚪ neutral — 🔴 risk-off

Time	Country	Indicator	Details (Actual — Forecast — Previous)
04:00	Germany	Final GDP q/q (Q3)	0.0% — 0.0% — 0.0%
04:45	France	Prelim GDP q/q (Q3)	0.5% — 0.5% — n/a
05:00	Switzerland	GDP q/q (Q3)	-0.4% — 0.1% — n/a
05:00	Spain	Flash CPI y/y (Nov)	3.0% — 3.1% — n/a
05:55	Germany	Unemployment Change (Nov)	4K — -1K — n/a
10:30	United States	Core PPI m/m (Oct)	0.2% — -0.1% — n/a
10:30	United States	PPI m/m (Oct)	0.3% — -0.1% — n/a
10:30	United States	Core Retail Sales m/m (Oct)	0.3% — 0.7% — n/a
10:30	United States	Retail Sales m/m (Oct)	0.4% — 0.6% — n/a
11:00	United States	FHFA HPI m/m (Sep)	0.2% — 0.4% — n/a
11:00	United States	S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y (Sep)	1.4% — 1.6% — n/a
12:00	United States	Pending Home Sales m/m (Oct)	0.5% — 0.0% — n/a
12:00	United States	Richmond Manufacturing Index (Nov)	-5 — -4 — n/a
21:30	Australia	CPI y/y (Q3)	3.6% — 3.5% — n/a
22:00	New Zealand	Official Cash Rate	2.25% — 2.50% — n/a

5. Gold Focus – GC

Neutral to slightly bullish medium-term bias, but tactically vulnerable intraday as gold consolidates after a huge year-to-date move and a brief spike above $4,100 earlier in November.
Key zones: recent swing high region as resistance (where supply re-appeared after the breakout) and a support band defined by last week’s pullback lows and the prior consolidation range.
Main drivers this week: US data (PPI, retail sales, housing, and upcoming PCE) shaping real yields and the USD; Fed communication around December; and the balance between equity volatility (risk-off hedging flows) versus a smooth year-end rally that tends to cap upside.

6. Elies’ Note

Trend is trying to reassert itself after a violent correction, but the tape is still headline driven.
Let the data drop, watch how indices react around prior day extremes and key liquidity pockets, and avoid forcing trades in the middle of the range.
Focus on clean structure, controlled risk per trade, and letting winners run only when the orderflow confirms the bias.

Sources: Reuters · Bloomberg · Yahoo Finance · MarketWatch