Daily Desk – November 24, 2025

Technical rebound across global indices after last week’s AI-driven selloff; markets now price a potential Fed cut in December while the USD remains firm.

1. Macro Context & Sentiment

Global equities extend Friday’s rebound: Asia opens cautiously higher, Europe follows, and US futures trade green.
US yield curve remains inverted but long-end yields ease as markets price softer growth and higher odds of a December rate cut.
Equity volatility rose last week, but overall flows remain constructive into year-end, with rotation out of crowded AI names.
Gold consolidates below record highs; oil remains capped by demand concerns; crypto takes a breather after months of strong gains.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, MarketWatch.

2. Long-Term Trend – US Indices

Index	LT Bias	Structure	Risks
S&P 500 (ES)	Bullish	Pullback within a long-term uptrend; higher weekly lows remain intact.	Hawkish repricing from the Fed; increased volatility; profit-taking.
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)	Bullish (corrective phase)	Light distribution range after an AI-driven correction.	Valuation compression risk; sensitive to US macro data.
Dow Jones (YM)	Neutral / slightly bullish	Cleaner structure; benefits from rotation into value and quality names.	Cyclical slowdown; industrial and financial vulnerability.

3. US Open Focus – Intraday Playbook

Logic: Light US macro session; price action around Friday’s extremes and liquidity pockets drives intraday direction.

Index	Bias	Support	Liquidity Zone	Scenario
ES	neutral	Friday lows + overnight low	Previous day high + weekly VWAP zone	Potential sweep above PDH → rejection → range re-entry; clean breakout can open a trend day.
NQ	neutral	Friday liquidation zone (recent tech flush)	Liquidity cluster just above PDH	Excess above PDH favors mean reversion unless flows align strongly with ES/YM.
YM	bullish	Support cluster from Thursday/Friday	Friday highs + weekly mid-range	Long setups favored on clean pullbacks; shorts only if correlation breaks with NQ and supports fail.

4. Economic Calendar

🟢 pro-risk — ⚪ neutral — 🔴 risk-off

Time	Country	Indicator	Details
06:00	Singapore	Core CPI YoY (Oct)	1.2% — Forecast 0.4% — Prev 0.4%
06:00	Singapore	Headline CPI YoY (Oct)	1.2% — Forecast 0.7% — Prev 0.7%
08:30	Switzerland	Employment Level (Q3)	5.532M — Forecast 5.532M
10:00	Germany	IFO Business Climate (Nov)	n/a — Forecast 88.6 — Prev 88.4
21:30	United States	Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index	n/a — Prev -5

5. Gold Focus – GC

Neutral to slightly bearish bias as gold consolidates below record territory.
Key zone: 4000$/oz macro pivot; intraday resistance at last week’s highs.
Main drivers: USD strength, US data (PCE, Retail Sales, PPI), and profit-taking flows.

6. Elies’ Note

Clean and disciplined start of the week. No need to rush, let the market structure define the opportunity. Focus on execution quality, risk control, and staying patient on key zones.