Daily Desk – November 21, 2025

A lighter macro day but key inflation data out of Japan and PMI signals from Europe. Markets digest yesterday’s US data with mixed sentiment.

1. Macro Context & Sentiment

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, MarketWatch.

2. Long-Term Trend – US Indices

IndexLT BiasStructureRisks
S&P 500 (ES)NeutralCompressionMacro digestion
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)BullishUptrend intactTech profit-taking
Dow Jones (YM)BearishLower highsWeak industrial sentiment

3. US Open Focus – Intraday Playbook

Logic: PMIs + yesterday’s employment data set a neutral opening bias.

IndexBiasKey SupportLiquidity ZoneScenario
ES neutral 5035 5110 Liquidity sweep → revert to mean
NQ bullish 17750 18120 Buy dips into support → trend continuation
YM bearish 38120 38600 Reject VWAP → downside target

4. Economic Calendar

🟢 pro-risk — ⚪ neutral — 🔴 risk-off

TimeCountryIndicatorDetailsBias
00:30 Japan Inflation Rate YoY 3% — Forecast: — — Previous: 2.9%
00:50 Japan Balance of Trade -231.8B¥ — Forecast: -280B¥ — Previous: -234.6B¥
08:00 UK Retail Sales MoM -1.1% — Forecast: 0% — Previous: 0.7%
09:30 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash 49.8 — Previous: —
10:30 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash 49.2 — Previous: —
10:30 UK S&P Global Services PMI Flash 52 — Previous: —

5. Gold Focus – GC

6. Elies’ Note

Stay selective. Trend continuation expected only on clean levels.