Daily Desk – November 20, 2025

Markets await key US macro releases: job market, housing data, and macro sentiment moving into the end of the week. Equities remain fragile with mixed earnings momentum.

1. Macro Context & Sentiment

US macro stable but decelerating — investors watching labor market softening.
Europe mixed: weak demand but stabilizing inflation expectations.
Dollar steady as yields pull back mildly; inflation expectations anchored.
Gold supported by macro uncertainty; crypto mixed; spreads stable.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, MarketWatch.

2. Long-Term Trend – US Indices

Index	LT Bias	Structure	Risks
S&P 500 (ES)	Neutral	Range-bound	Job market weakness
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)	Bullish	Higher highs forming	Tech volatility
Dow Jones (YM)	Neutral	Sideways	Industrial slowdown

3. US Open Focus – Intraday Playbook

Logic: Watching reactions to NFP trends + unemployment and housing data.

Index	Bias	Key Support	Liquidity Zone	Scenario
ES	bullish	5050	5078	Break & retest → continuation
NQ	neutral	17800	18050	Liquidity sweep → reversal possible
YM	bearish	38300	38520	Failure at supply → downside extension

4. Economic Calendar

🟢 pro-risk — ⚪ neutral — 🔴 risk-off

Time	Country	Indicator	Details
14:30	USA	Non Farm Payrolls	Actual: 119k — Forecast: 50k — Previous: −4k
14:30	USA	Unemployment Rate	Current: 4.4% — Forecast: 4.3% — Previous: 4.3%
16:00	USA	Existing Home Sales	4.1M vs 4.08M (forecast) — 4.05M previous

5. Gold Focus – GC

Bullish bias supported by risk aversion.
Key zone: 2375 – 2388.
Drivers: USD softness + macro uncertainty + yields stabilizing.

6. Elies’ Note

Volatility remains compressed intraday, remain disciplined on levels. Clear liquidity grabs today.